Kuleana

Risk and the tourism lesson

Learn why spreading your bets is the closest thing to a free lunch.

Lesson 1 of 4

Risk means swings

In investing, risk usually means how much a value swings up and down. Cash barely moves. Bonds move a little. Stocks can rise or fall 20% or more in a year.

Higher expected returns usually come with bigger swings. There is no reliable way to get stock-like growth with savings-account calm.

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Watch a fall and a recovery

Pick a real market shock and see how far each investment fell and how long it took to come back.

Hawaiʻi had only 3,565 visitors in April 2020 and unemployment hit 23.5%. Stocks crashed and recovered within months. Tourism stocks took far longer.

S&P 500Host HotelsAlaska AirBonds
$40$60$80$100$120$140Jan 2020Apr 2020Aug 2020Nov 2020Mar 2021Jun 2021S&P 500Host HotelsBondsAlaska Air
InvestmentWorst fallLow pointBack to its old high
S&P 500 index fund-19%Mar 20206 months later
Host Hotels & Resorts-35%Oct 202013 months later
Alaska Air Group-56%Mar 202013 months later
Total bond market fund-4%Mar 2021Not yet

Monthly total return, so short intra-month dips look smaller than they were.

Check your understanding

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  1. 1.What is a drawdown?
  2. 2.Why is owning only Hawaiʻi stocks risky for someone who works in Hawaiʻi?
  3. 3.Hawaiian Electric fell 58% in the week after the Maui fires. What would have softened that loss most?

Answer every question to check.

For learning only. Kuleana Finance explains how money works. It does not tell anyone what to buy or sell.