See how a portfolio weathers a storm
History only happened once. The stress lab runs your portfolio through seven made-up storms, several of them built around risks specific to Hawaiʻi, so you can see where it bends and where it breaks.
These scenarios are hypothetical teaching tools built from simple rules. They are not forecasts, and none of them is a prediction about any company.
Your portfolio
BOH 13%, FHB 13%, CPF 13%, HE 13%, MATX 13%, ALK 13%, MLP 13%, HST 13%
Tourism collapse
A pandemic-style event stops travel almost overnight. Markets crash fast, then rebound within months as governments step in. Travel companies take far longer.
In April 2020 only 3,565 visitors arrived and unemployment hit 23.5%. About one in five Hawaiʻi jobs depends on visitors.
- Lowest point
- -35%
- Month 3
- After 24 months
- $10,403
- +4%
- S&P 500 low
- -29%
- Same scenario
- S&P 500 at 24 months
- +7%
- Same scenario
$10,000 over 24 hypothetical months
What the scenario does
At its lowest point, in month 3, your portfolio is 35% below where it started. The S&P 500's lowest point in the same scenario is -29%.
Host Hotels & Resorts takes the hardest hit, falling as much as 60%. It swings more than the overall market, so a broad sell-off hits it harder.
Hawaiian Electric Industries holds up best, ending +10% after two years.
After 24 months you end +4%, behind the S&P 500's +7%.
Holding by holding
Lowest point and value after 24 months for each holding.
- BOH-31%+6%
- FHB-30%+4%
- CPF-35%+4%
- HE-10%+10%
- MATX-28%+7%
- ALK-56%-1%
- MLP-34%+3%
- HST-60%-1%
Lowest24 months
The AI narrates
Ask the copilot to walk through this storm month by month, or to explain why one holding fell harder than another.
Every storm, one portfolio
The same portfolio run through all seven scenarios. The dashed line is the S&P 500 in each one.
How this works: each investment has a sensitivity to five forces (the overall market, tourism, interest rates, oil and island disasters). A scenario sets how hard each force hits, and a simple curve spreads that hit across 24 months, plus normal long-run growth. The rules are rough by design. Real markets are messier and nobody can predict them. For learning only. Kuleana Finance explains how money works. It does not tell anyone what to buy or sell.